A Compass Without a Map

Over the weekend I re watched one of the greatest films ever made—Lincoln by Steven Spielberg. Albeit a slow watch, Daniel Day-Lewis embodies a man of sharp intellect and quick wit, capturing the singular presence of Abraham Lincoln with remarkable precision.

The film is rich in lessons on leadership, but one passage stood out above all. In a dialogue with Thaddeus Stevens, Lincoln offers a masterful reflection on practicality and success:

“A compass, I learned while I was surveying, it’ll point you true north from where you’re standing but it’s got no advice about the swamps, deserts and chasms that you’ll encounter along the way. If in pursuit of your destination you plunge ahead heedless of obstacles, and achieve nothing more than to sink in a swamp…what’s the use of knowing true north?”

Watch the Scene on Youtube

For Stevens, post-Civil War reconstruction was the moment for radical change. For Lincoln, it was about balance—pushing too fast, even toward a morally right goal, risked sinking the fragile Union.

Investing is no different. The compass of global trends points clearly—demographics, technology, energy transitions, monetary policy, and above all, digital assets as the long-term anchor of value. Yet the compass is silent about volatility, leverage cycles, liquidity shocks, and political risks.

Too many investors see true north but ignore the terrain. They’re right about the destination but wrong about the path. And in markets, those swamps can be as destructive as being directionless.

At Denaris Capital, we believe the discipline is not just in reading the compass, but in anticipating the swamps. That means building agility into every position: rotating sectors, adjusting exposures, hedging against downturns, and keeping dry powder when storms hit.

Because knowing true north only matters if you make it through the swamp.

Give me six hours to chop down a tree and I will spend the first four sharpening the axe.

-Abraham Lincoln